New Facebook Investors Will Be Bagholders

You've probably heard all the excitement lately over the news that Facebook will be going public - on Wednesday they filed their IPO prospectus with the SEC. They are soon to be trading on the NYSE and the company is predicted to be valued up to $100 billion. This means that thousands of investors are going to be putting up their money and betting on the future of Facebook, hoping to score big returns.

Google went public back in 2004 and anyone who bought Google shares then is doing very well right now with their return on investment. But is Facebook another Google? Does it really have the staying power and growth potential?

We see it more as another Myspace. And social networking sites like Myspace and Facebook don't have the type of staying power that search engines like Google do. They're more like a fad or fashion trend, although they can definitely stay popular long enough to rake in some dough. But these sites have a life cycle where they reach their full potential within a few years, and then as the excitement wears off and their users get bored, inevitably something else comes along that becomes the next big thing. And right now we're at the very end of the peak for Facebook's popularity. It has already had its been run, the big run is not in the future.

Young people are always what drives the next hot site, the next innovation. Facebook is still "cool" right now, but how about in a couple years when a whole new generation views Facebook as their mother's social networking site? It's going to happen, and it won't be long before it does.

Facebook is about to get a shitload of money though, and it definitely won't go down without a fight. Expect to see a bunch of new features and services rolled out over the next few years and witness their attempt to turn it into something much more than just a social networking site - just as Google became much more than just a search engine. But at the same time they're rolling out these new features, they're also going to be facing pressure from investors to monetize their popularity. Investors won't just be flooding in money to Facebook to be nice, they're going to want to see big revenues coming in. So at a time when Facebook is almost at its "old and stale" phase of the life cycle, they're going to be bombarding their members with annoying ads and other ways they can get money out of them. It's only going to make it that much easier for people to switch to the next big thing when it comes along.

iwearyourshirt.com: The Dumbest Idea Since Unsliced Bread

More and more lately we here at People Liking People keep hearing about some new and exciting website called iwearyourshirt.com. This "buzz" is obviously contrived and the result of some sort of viral marketing campaign by the guys running it because there's no way this thing is ever going to get off the ground. I guess we'll give them a little credit for trying, but they'd be better off trying something more worthwhile.

iwearyourshirt.com has a handful of employees and it's their job to wear the shirts. They're hoping that small businesses trying to get their name out will be willing to fork over cash for their t-shirt wearers to wear their logo for a day, or however many days the company pays for. The way they price their t-shirt wearing service is pretty screwy: starting on January 1st of the year it cost $5, January 2nd it's $10, January 3rd it's $15, and the cost keeps going up in increments of $5 every day all the way to December 31 where it's $1,825. Apparently these folks don't just wear the shirt of your choice, they'll be posting youtube clips, blogging about their sponsors and various attention whoring activities.

Here's why the business model is full of fail:

It won't work financially for the employees. The amount of money earned by one of these shirt wearing guys is without a doubt going to end up being less $$ a year than your average McDonalds employee. Why don't you just get a job and make a real living?

There's nothing special about some random guy wearing your t-shirt. How about I just wear my own shirt for free?

A small handful of people wearing your logo on their shirt for a couple days out of a year, in a sea of 300+ million people will have absolutely no effect on anyone's bottom line or exposure and the return on investment will be pretty close to zero. You'd get much more mileage out of it if you just went around handing your business logo t-shirts out to random people. At least then there's a good chance they'll continue to wear that shirt for months to come. Whereas with these pricks, they wear it for that day you paid for and then throw it away afterward.

Their pricing scheme doesn't take into account any type of supply & demand. They set the price in stone for the whole year, sit back and hope people are willing to pay those rates. In the earlier months of the year they'll be selling themselves short at prices under $100, even if people are willing to pay much more. And in the last couple months they may have a hard time finding anyone willing to pay over $1,000.

Lastly, the #1 reason this will fail:



This is the guy that'll be wearing the shirts. I could see a company actually paying him NOT to wear their logo around, fearing consumers would associate this clown with their company and products.

Bottom line: stop whoring yourselves out and get a real job. This one isn't going to work out anyway.

I personally like this line here in their how-it-works section:

2011 days are sold at +$5 per day.Just like 2009 and 2010, the price will start small and increase daily. January 1 is $5, January 2 is $10, January 3 is $15 and the price continues to increase by $5 each day until December 31, 2011.

No, really guys! This is serious, see? We did the same thing in 2009 and 2010. This isn't just like some make believe thing we just came up with out of our ass!